Tag: unemployment

Indeed on CSO unemployment: Unemployment rate increases to 4.3%

The main unemployment rate was 4.3% in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, up from 4.2% in February of this year and up from 4.1% in March 2023. There was an increase of 9,400 in the seasonally adjusted number of people unemployed in March 2024 compared with a year earlier. 

Jack Kennedy, senior economist at global jobs platform Indeed, comments on the latest CSO data:

“The main unemployment rate was 4.3% in March, up from the 4.2% recorded in February and compared to 4.1% in March 2023.

The latest figure remains down from the 4.6% recorded in January though and is lower than rates seen in the second half of 2023.

Overall, the Irish labour market remained resilient in Q1 and barring any other major shocks to the economy, the outlook for the remainder of the year is positive, although it is possible that there will be some further modest softening.

Irish job postings on Indeed were down to 14% above pre-pandemic levels at the end of March. This compares to 17% at the end of February 2024 and 22% in January. This is also down from a high of 65% recorded in February 2022. We expect to see job postings continue to gradually recede to levels similar to those prevailing before the pandemic. 

Wage growth in Ireland continues to hold steady and was at 4.1% year-on-year at the end of February. This reflects the ongoing pressure employers are under to recruit and retain staff at a time when the cost of living remains high, but may ease somewhat later this year if the labour market continues to soften and cost-of-living pressures ease further.  

For now, however, employees are likely to continue to press for pay rises despite signs that the inflation rate is falling amid lower energy and food prices. The latest CSO figures showed the annual inflation rate in Ireland fell below the euro zone target of 2% for the first time in almost three years after slowing to 1.7% in March.

This is good news for hard-pressed households and offers some relief, but it is likely to take time before they feel the real impact, especially as government energy and fuel supports have either ended or are about to end later this month. Many households may also require reductions in the European Central Bank’s key interest rate before regaining full confidence in their financial position and ability to spend.”

Unemployment continues to fall to 4.1%, but wage pressures may be past their peak

The main unemployment rate was 4.1% in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, down from 4.2% in June and down from a level of 4.2% twelve months ago. The seasonally adjusted number of people unemployed fell by 3,600 in July but was up by 100 in the past 12 months.

Jack Kennedy, senior economist at global job site Indeed, comments on the latest CSO data:

“The labour market remains incredibly tight with the unemployment rate at 4.1% — the joint-record lowest since 2001 according to the latest revised figures— and is proving resilient amidst global challenges. The continuing low level of Ireland’s unemployment rate reflects the culmination of concerted efforts by both the public and private sectors to foster a robust and sustainable economy.

Recent data from Eurostat shows that the Eurozone economy returned to growth in the second quarter, as the euro area grew 0.3 per cent in the three months to July, after stagnating in the previous quarter. Unemployment in the eurozone also dipped to a new all-time low of 6.4%. This is an indication that the economy is stabilising; however, it is essential to remain cautious and vigilant.

Economic success is not without challenges, and as the labour market remains at near full employment, the coming months could reveal sector squeezes.

Pay pressures remain strong and workers will push for higher wages to compensate for high inflation. That said, wage pressures may be past their peak. The Indeed Wage Tracker, based on advertised pay for new hires, showed a further easing to 4.3% y/y in June, down from a peak of 5.5% in March. 

This corresponds with a gradual softening in employers’ hiring appetite, though the latter remains strong. The latest figures from Indeed show that job postings on Indeed Ireland are 30% above the pre-pandemic baseline as of July 2023 (Fig. 1).

The country’s commitment to nurturing a highly skilled and educated workforce has bolstered productivity and competitiveness. As we remain at full employment, now is the time to future-proof the Irish economy. Prioritising various educational routes, including apprenticeships, and investing in sustainable career options for young people who might otherwise seek to emigrate, can ensure our highly talented workforce remains a key driver of economic growth.