Bank of Ireland customers increased their debit and credit card spending for January, with an acceleration in the pace of household spending growth to 6.1%, up from 4.5% in December. This growth, which was broad-based across various sectors, significantly outpaced the current CPI inflation rate of 1.4%, indicating a real gain in consumption of approximately 4%.
A key highlight of January’s spending was a surge in summer holiday planning – travel agencies saw a 50% increase in sales from December, while airline spending rose by 90%. Although year-on-year growth in these categories was modest, spending on hotels and resorts increased by 4.9%.
Spending on sports clubs saw a substantial 23% year-on-year rise, reflecting ‘New Year, New You’ resolutions. However, the January sales season’s impact on retail was less pronounced, with clothing sales down 5% year-on-year, although electrical goods saw a 6.4% increase – November/December are now the most important months for sales of both these items.
Despite the January sales season not providing a significant boost to retail spending, likely due to the prominence of Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales in November and December, spending on services saw a 4.2% year-on-year increase, driven by higher expenditure on travel and other services. ATM withdrawals decreased in January by 2% year-on-year, now accounting for just 12% of total card spending, down from nearly one-third pre-pandemic.
“January’s credit/debit card data showing nominal spending growth of 6.1% is an encouraging sign, showing households’ incomes and expenditure are now growing faster than prices. Notably, cash withdrawals now account for just €1 in every €10 spent by Irish households, well down from one-third just a couple of years ago,” said Conall Mac Coille, Chief Economist, Bank of Ireland.
Looking ahead, Bank of Ireland forecasts a 3% real growth in consumer spending for 2025. “Several indicators support this optimistic outlook, including employment growth at 3.7%, a low unemployment rate of 4%, and average earnings growth of 5%, which is above the CPI inflation rate of 1.4%. Budget 2025 tax cuts, worth 2% of disposable incomes at the average wage, are also expected to bolster consumer spending”, said Conall Mac Coille.
Valentine’s Day is likely to have provided a significant boost to florists, with spending typically rising 5-6 times the normal daily average during this period. There has been a consistent decline in spending on online dating services, down 17% year-on-year in January and 43% since the peak in 2021.